Larry Sabato
How Obama Did It

Shortly before ten o’clock on the evening February 1, 2008, Barack Obama’s chartered 737 took off from Albuquerque International Airport bound for Boise, Idaho, where the Illinois senator was scheduled to hold a rally the next day.

In just four days voters in twenty-two states would award 1,681 Democratic National Convention delegates, of which Idaho’s caucuses would pick eighteen.

During the two-hour flight to Boise, Obama’s press handlers tried to assure traveling reporters that the candidate had not taken leave of his senses. “It may not be California,” an aide commented, “but smaller states like Idaho and Delaware add up.”

Barack Obama will become the Democratic Party’s presidential standard bearer in 2008 precisely because small states - particularly small caucus states - add up.

Continue reading at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

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About Larry Sabato

The founder and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, Larry J. Sabato has appeared on national television and radio programs including 60 Minutes, Today, Hardball, and Nightline. A Rhodes Scholar, he received his doctorate in politics from Oxford, and has been at UVA since 1978. The author of countless articles and some twenty books, most recently The Sixth Year Itch: The Rise and Fall of George W. Bush’s Presidency, he co-anchored the BBC’s coverage of the 2006 election. In 2002, the University of Virginia gave him its highest honor, the Thomas Jefferson Award. Dr. Sabato is also regularly updating "Sabato's Crystal Ball," a critically acclaimed election analysis website which recorded the most accurate election predictions in the country in 2006, correctly predicting every contest for the U.S. Senate, all but one gubernatorial race, and a net party change of 29 seats in the U.S. House.

Read all articles by Larry Sabato

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